The Impact of the Framing Effect on Potential Investor Decision-Making: Results of an Oculographic Experiment
PDF
PDF (Russian)

Keywords

decision-making
stock exchange
framing effect
eye tracking
oculography
potential investors

Abstract

Introduction. In recent years, private investors have significantly increased their influence on the Russian securities market. Understanding the cognitive biases of private investors will help to fill the gap in research into cognitive decision biases in decision-making in investment behavior. Private investors participate in the placement of federal loan bonds and also support private enterprises through participation in corporate bonds. This study aims to test experimentally the impact of the framing effect (the effect of the ‘frame’ or information presentation format) on the decision-making of potential investors in securities trading. Methods. The sample comprised 20 adults aged 20–35 years (7 men and 13 women). Stimulus materials were presented on the Neurobureau platform for neurocognitive research and involved recording subjects’ videooculography using the GazePoint GP3 eye tracker (with the Neurobureau software). A total of 240 measurements were carried out. The experimental series consisted of 12 stimuli. Pairs of financial proposals were created, with differences provided only by different formulations and emotional and semantic features. Results. Using quantitative data analysis, significant differences were established between responses to stimuli of the same content but different wording. A step-by-step regression analysis confirmed the impact of the framing effect on economic decision-making. In qualitative data analysis, the proportion of attention to stimuli was determined using heat maps, which also confirmed the role of lexical forms and emotional connotations of the wording of company news (without changing objective information) in purchasing and selling shares or in not taking action. Discussion. The results of the experiment proved the impact of the framing effect on the decision-making of potential investors. Based on the obtained data, a conclusion is drawn on the importance of psychological factors in selecting and assessing information resources in the process of obtaining company news information.

https://doi.org/10.21702/rpj.2023.4.9
PDF
PDF (Russian)

References

Абрамов, А. Е., Радыгин, А. Д., Чернова, М. И. (2020). Детерминанты поведения частных инвесторов на российском фондовом рынке. Экономическая политика, 15(3), 8–43.

Инькова М. Д., & Адасова Я. Б. (2021). Риски инвестирования на коротких позициях. Финансовые рынки и банки, 3, 51–53.

Сайбель, Н. Ю., Ковальчук, А. В. (2018). Фондовый рынок России: проблемы и перспективы развития. Финансы и кредит, 3(771).

Скуратова, К. А., Шелепин, Е. Ю., Шелепин, К. Ю. (2022). Программные возможности применения метода айтрекинга в исследованиях зрительного восприятия. Российский психологический журнал, 19(4), 173–185. https://doi.org/10.21702/rpj.2022.4.12

Федорова, Е. А., Демин, И. С., Афанасьев, Д. О., Рогов, О. Ю. (2020). О влиянии зарубежных СМИ на российский фондовый рынок: текстовый анализ. Экономика и математические методы, 56(2), 77–89. https://doi.org/10.31857/S042473880008527-8

Фоломеева Т.В., Винокуров Ф.Н., Федотова С.В., Садовская Е.Д. (2022). Роль цифровых технологий в экономических решениях: искусственный интеллект и склонность к риску. Вестник Московского университета. Серия 14. Психология, 3, 40–64. https://doi.org/10.11621/vsp.2022.03.04

Шелепин, К. Ю., Шелепин, Е. Ю., Скуратова, К. А., Зуева, В. С. (2020). Психологический практикум по видеоокулографии. Сборник лабораторных работ. Скифия-принт.

Ariely, D. & Zakay, D. (2001). A Timely Account of the Role of Duration in Decision Making. Acta Psychologica, 108, 181–207.

Barber, B. M., & Odean, T. (2013). The behavior of individual investors. Handbook of the Economics of Finance, 2, 1533–1570.

Barber, B. M. & Odean, T. (2002). Online Investors: Do the Slow Die First? The Review of Financial Studies, 15(2), 455–487.

Beattie, V., & Jones, M. (2000). Impression management: The case of inter-country Financial graphs. Journal of International Accounting, Auditing & Taxation, 9, 159–183.

Diacon, S., & Hasseldine, J. (2007). Framing effects and risk perception: The effect of prior performance presentation format on investment fund choice. Journal of Economic Psychology, 28(1), 31–52. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2006.01.003

Duclos, R. (2015). The Psychology of Investment Behavior: (De)biasing Financial Decision making One Graph at a Time. Journal of Consumer Psychology, 25(2), 317–325. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcps.2014.11.005

Evans, J. S. B. T., & Stanovich, K. E. (2013). Dual-process theories of higher cognition: Advancing the debate. Perspectives on Psychological Science, 8, 223–241.

Fulmer, B. P. (2014). Attention and Effort in an Investment Decision under the Influence of Gains and Losses (PhD Dissertation). Florida State University.

Hess, R., V. H. M. Visschers, M. Siegrist, C. Keller. (2010). How do People Perceive Graphical Risk Communication? The Role of Subjective Numeracy. Journal of Risk Research, 14(1), 47-61.

Huber, O., & Kunz, U. (2007). Time pressure in risky decision-making: effect on risk defusing. Psychology Science, 49(4), 415.

Kahneman, D. (2003). Maps of bounded rationality: Psychology for behavioral economics. American Economic Review, 93(5), 1449–1475.

Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1984). Choices, values, and frames. American Psychologist, 39(4), 341–350. doi:10.1037/0003-066x.39.4.341.

Ko, J. C. W., Cheng, M. M., & Green, W. J. (2023). Stakeholder Focus or Strategy Focus? An Eye-Tracker Study on the Effect of Presentation Format on Nonprofessional Investors’ Information Processing Patterns. European Accounting Review, 1–28.

Kong, D., Shi, L., & Zhang, F. (2021). Explain or conceal? Causal language intensity in annual report and stock price crash risk. Economic Modelling, 94, 715–725.

Kuo, F. Y., Hsu, C. W., & Day, R. F. (2009). An exploratory study of cognitive effort involved in decision under Framing an application of the eye-tracking technology. Decision support systems, 48(1), 81–91.

Levin, I., Schneider, S., & Gaeth, G. (1998). All frames are not created equal: A typology and critical analysis of framing effects. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 76, 149–188.

Maule, A. J., & Edland, A. C. (2002). The effects of time pressure on human judgement and decision making. In Decision making (pp. 203-218). Routledge.

McNeil, B. J., Pauker, S. G., Sox, H. C., & Tversky, A. (1982). On the elicitation of preferences for alternative therapies. New England Journal of Medicine, 306, 1259–1262.

Nazlan, N. H., Tanford, S., & Montgomery, R. (2018). The effect of availability heuristics in online consumer reviews. Journal of Consumer Behaviour, 17(5), 449–460.

Pompian, M. (2006). Behavioral Finance and Wealth Management: How to Build Optimal Portfolios that Account for Investor Biases. John Wiley & Sons.

Thaler, R. H., & Johnson, E. J. (1990). Gambling with the House Money and Trying to Break Even: The Effects of Prior Outcomes on Risky Choice. Management Science, 36(6), 643 –660.

Sanford, A. J., Fay, N., Stewart, A., & Moxey, L. (2002). Perspective in statements of quantity, with implications for consumer psychology. Psychological Science, 13(2), 130–134.

Sirois, L. P., Bédard, J., & Bera, P. (2018). The informational value of key audit matters in the auditor's report: Evidence from an eye-tracking study. Accounting Horizons, 32(2), 141–162.

Sun, S., Hu, J., & Yu, R. (2022). Domain-specific neural substrates underlie the framing effect. Neuroimage: Reports, 2(4), 100119.

Toma, F. M., Cepoi, C. O., Kubinschi, M. N., & Miyakoshi, M. (2023). Gazing through the bubble: an experimental investigation into financial risk-taking using eye-tracking. Financial Innovation, 9(1), 1–27.

Young, D. L., Goodie, A. S., Hall, D. B., & Wu, E. (2012). Decision making under time pressure, modeled in a prospect theory framework. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 118(2), 179–188.

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Copyright (c) 2023 Russian Psychological Journal